Space Tourism: Will this Ever Be Practical?

Much of human society is collectively fascinated with interstellar exploration, but the reality is that we have very few practical reasons left to actually send humans beyond our own atmosphere. The massive improvements in observation technology, including telescopes, robotics, and unmanned drones, have made sending astronauts into space more or less obsolete. At least until such time as we’re ready to seed life on other planets, and the practicality of that in itself is a little debatable, but put a pin in that debate for a different article.

What we’re here to talk about today is one of the few reasons left to facilitate astronauts: because interstellar travel is fun. Space tourism is a notion that’s been around for centuries, and interest in the idea has, to some extent, remained consistent since it was first conceivable that exploring space may be possible. The problem is, and always has been, the justification of the obscene cost and countless skilled work hours required to blast people beyond the stars.

Now, if you pose the question to NASA as to why human spaceflight is important you’ll get answers such as “making our lives better,” “exploring the secrets of the universe,” “figuring out how it all began,” and “answering whether we’re alone.” All rather noble pursuits, if a bit esoteric, but you’ll probably agree that the existence of NASA is justified.

The International Space Station (ISS) is buzzing with activity, and important research is being carried out there even as we speak. Expedition 71 began April 5th, 2024 and is set to last until September, with researchers looking into neuro-degenerative diseases, space botany, algae-based life support and more.

So, beyond this sort of orbital scientific research, itself probably not requiring humans for much longer, for space tourism to ever be widely available major innovations have to occur in affordability, and the required infrastructure must already exist. This means that we’re probably a long way off from affordable options, right?

Perhaps not. Recent predictions say that space tourism is one of the hot new industries, with it being suggested that the market will grow 19.8 percent annually between 2024 and 2028, ultimately generating around $5 billion annually by 2034. If that’s the case, are the breakthroughs at SpaceX and other major aeronautics and astronautics companies on the verge of finally transforming space tourism into something widely accessible?

A Brief History of the Chaotic Space Tourism Industry

The concept of achievable space tourism goes back much further than most assume, with the idea being seriously considered as early as the 70s and the 80s. After the excitement of the Space Race interstellar exploration was all the rage, and a number of companies were keen on capitalising, including American mega-corporation Rockwell International. In the 70s the company put forward the concept of a removable cabin that could fit into a shuttle’s cargo bay, effectively providing room for around 74 passengers. The passengers were to experience an orbital passage around Earth for up to 3 days.

The design didn’t make it beyond the concept stage, but was followed up by a similar idea in 1985 presented by the National Space Society. The organisation’s presentation suggested that the cost of putting passengers into orbit would initially come in at around $1 to $1.5 million per passenger, but speculation was that spaceflight would get drastically cheaper, and that within 15 years 30,000 people would be making the trip annually and paying the equivalent of $70,000 per person. The National Space Society was so optimistic as to declare lunar orbital trips would be available in 30 years, and lunar surface visits within 50.

It all seemed rather feasible at the time, and the world was giddy with anticipation. But take a look around, notice the suspicious absence of interstellar airports, and ask yourself what happened.

Well, if you know anything about spaceflight you’ll already know the tragic story of Christa McAuliffe. It was during the 80s that NASA was gearing up to open the Space Flight Participation program to citizens, coinciding with the ambitious plans to start sending tourists to the moon. McAuliffe was part of the 1985 Teacher in Space project, an initiative that received 11,400 applications.

The similar Journalist in Space project, receiving 1,700 applications, was set to launch soon after the first. NASA intended that following these initial proof of concept flights, around 2 to 3 civilians would be included on spaceflights annually, acting as a spearhead into an interstellar exploration focused future.

The Space Shuttle Challenger on mission STS-51-L exploded immediately after take-off, killing everyone on board including McAuliffe. Not surprisingly, this very horrific, extremely public disaster somewhat dampened interest in space tourism, all but bringing ambitious future plans to a grinding halt. It is worth mentioning that Barbara Morgan, McAuliffe’s backup, did eventually make the trip in 1998.

Now, at this point NASA was giving rather mixed signals about its position on space tourism, with an article dated 1st November, 2000, sharing the words of NASA spokesperson Bryan Welch. Welch declared: “While we’re building the ISS (International Space Station,) this is not the time to do something like that. In the early part of the program there is lot of work to be done and equipment to be installed. It’s not a pleasure cruise.”

This attitude did a rather abrupt 180 in 2001. The Space and Aeronautics Committee on Science at the House of Representatives announced that they were “reviewing the issues and opportunities related to flying nonprofessional astronauts, and considering the role that government would play in using the Shuttle and International Space Station for tourism.”

Whatever NASA’s intentions were and whatever the organisation was hoping for, the plans were once again hastily reconsidered as another very public disaster rocked the aeronautics world. On February 1st, 2003 the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated over Texas and Louisiana, killing all 7 astronauts on board. Hopes of accommodating tourists were, very understandably, firmly put on a backburner as the organisation once again set about repairing its shattered reputation.

But for all the trouble NASA was having, Russia, meanwhile, did not waste any time in opening up new revenue streams for its cash-starved spaceflight industry. As far back as 1990 an offer was accepted from the Tokyo Broadcasting System to fly a reporter to the Mir Space Station. Toyohiro Akiyama made the trip to Mir, did daily broadcasts, and participated in scientific experiments. The cost of his journey is estimated at between $10 and $37 million, all covered by Tokyo Broadcasting.

Project Juno followed in 1991 with the intention being that chemist Helen Sharman would be the first Briton in space. After some initial trouble with raising funds the project did eventually go ahead, with Mikhail Gorbachev stepping in to cover costs as a means to promote international relations.

A reality TV show titled Destination: Mir, championed by Survivor producer Mark Burnett, was scheduled to premiere at some point between 2001 and 2004. Burnett would have leased part of the Mir space station via MirCorp, then would have followed contestants as they competed for a place on a 10 day mission aboard the space station. Destination: Mir never happened, and various attempts to reignite it over the years likewise failed. That Russia was willing to lease part of the Mir space station should make a few things very clear, namely that human spaceflight, and interstellar exploration in general, was struggling with funding and relevance.

At least, it was struggling with funding and relevance until fairly recently.

Modern Space Tourism Is Born

Now, technically speaking Toyohiro Akiyama and Helen Sharman weren’t space tourists by definition. Although non-government astronauts entering the space program, they performed science experiments and other journalistic duties, meaning they were “payload specialists” according to rules and regulations.

So space tourism essentially only really started in April 2001 with American businessman Dennis Tito. He flew aboard a Russian Soyuz-TM32 spacecraft and visited a segment of the ISS, staying aboard for nearly 8 days. Following his successful journey, an additional 6 space tourists followed between 2001 and 2009, facilitated by American company Space Adventures.

The price for each tourist was between $20 and $25 million, but even still by 2007 the buzz surrounding space tourism was again palpable. As it was in the 80s, expectations were that space tourism would quickly become a viable new industry, and the world braced in anticipation.

However, Russia halted all space tourism in 2009 due to an increase in the size of the active scientific crew aboard the ISS. Russian officials did declare that orbital tourist flights would resume in 2015, but that plan was abruptly cancelled.

Russian orbital tourism eventually reopened in 2021, and NASA announced it would start accepting tourists in 2020. But neither have been doing anything close to brisk business, and the grand total of all space tourists, not including those that have simply travelled a certain distance above sea level technically making them astronauts, is 21. That’s the original 7 in the early 2000s, plus 14 since, making it pretty clear that the words “hot new industry” and “space tourism” don’t exactly belong in the same sentence.

On the other hand each of those 14 space tourists paid around $50 million plus an additional $35,000 per day, and some went on more than one trip. So even if space tourism isn’t particularly inclusive, it’s certainly helping NASA cover those costs.

This, more or less, brings us to the present day, and to call the current state of space tourism confusing is an understatement. There are 3 major players, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and SpaceX, all incredibly well-funded and each backed by a big corporate name; that’s Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson and Elon Musk respectively. Let’s go through each, figure out what’s going on, and decide if you should be preparing for your trip around the moon.

SpaceX

Kicking off with perhaps the most recognisable of the 3: SpaceX. You’re probably aware that SpaceX loves the media spotlight, and it goes without saying that something related to the company has probably slapped you in the face, whether you were looking for it or not. Even at the time of this article being researched and written an impressive new video was published depicting the Super Heavy Booster being caught mid-air after an initial launch.

It is, as far as space tourism is concerned, exactly this sort of reusable spaceflight technology that could make interstellar travel more affordable, and therefore more broadly accessible. But do the current technological advancements indicate that we’re finally entering into a viable space tourism era? No, probably not. As far as SpaceX is concerned, you’re still not getting a trip into space unless you fork over tens of millions, or even an estimated $500+ million, if the trip to the moon sold to Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa is to be believed.

There have been a few remarks and vague promises by SpaceX regarding space tourism, and some of the successful tourists have even travelled on the company’s Crew Dragon. But the reality is that space tourism is not a priority for SpaceX other than as a publicity stunt, and probably won’t be for some time. To put it bluntly, SpaceX isn’t strapped for cash having landed multiple hundred million dollar NASA contracts, and the company technicians are presently very focused on developing reusable spaceflight technology for NASA, not for tourism.

Now, this isn’t to say that the company won’t ever expand into the broader tourism market, it probably will at some point. But that expansion is still likely decades away, and will only go ahead on the basis of a few major advancements in spacecraft reusability. Plus, even then, the prices likely still won’t be affordable to the average person.

Blue Origin

While SpaceX spends more time in the spotlight than Blue Origin, if you thought a company owned by Jeff Bezos was anything less than a behemoth you’d have been mistaken. The company was awarded a $3.4 billion contract for NASA’s Artemis Program, otherwise known as the project to establish a human presence on the moon, and has received the Robert J. Collier Trophy. The Collier Trophy is an accolade administered by the US National Aeronautics Association for “the greatest achievement in aeronautics or astronautics in America, with respect to improving the performance, efficiency, and safety of air or space vehicles, the value of which has been thoroughly demonstrated by actual use during the preceding year.”

To put it in a nutshell, Blue Origin is an enormously successful company that has its fingers in more pies than we care to list here. In fact, strap yourself in for some exciting news: one of the projects Blue Origin is currently involved in is called Orbital Reef, and it happens to be a commercial low Earth orbit space station. More exciting still is that Orbital Reef is set to officially launch in 2027, meaning that it’s just a few years until the first entirely tourism-based space station is available.

Blue Origin is partnered with Sierra Space, which will provide Large Integrated Flexible Environment (LIFE) modules, as well as Boeing which will provide a science module and the Starliner crew spacecraft, plus Redwire Space which will provide deployable structures. Genesis Engineering and Arizona State University are also involved, with Genesis providing a Single Person Spacecraft aimed specifically at tourist excursions.

Now, if all of this has you giddy with excitement, we hate to be the bearers of bad news. First, the good news: NASA reportedly paid out $24 million of a $130 million contract in October 2023, indicating that the company achieved some milestones. However, CNBC was quick to point out that the Orbital Reef website hasn’t been updated in over a year, and that no specialised hiring is occurring on the parts of either Sierra Space or Blue Origin. CNBC speculated that the lack of buzz was likely due to both companies being far more concerned with much bigger, far more lucrative projects, and that Orbital Reef was being treated as something of an afterthought.

We can’t say whether this is true, but we can suggest that if a commercial space station was due to be launched in 3 years that there might be a bit more of a buzz. Chances are pretty good that Orbital Reef will be delayed. There is also no indication of what it might cost to visit Orbital Reef, assuming it does eventually become available.

Virgin Galactic

At last we come to Virgin Galactic, the only company with a primary focus on space tourism, and, if we’re being realistic, the only company keeping hopes that space tourism will one day be affordable alive. Or at least, on a level that millionaires can afford it rather than just billionaires.

Now, we say keeping hopes alive, but Virgin Galactic isn’t taking any tourists into space at the moment, and probably won’t be again until at least 2026. You might find this timeline rather surprising, especially since the company boasted that 640 customers signed up in 2013 at cost of $250,000 per person. Sadly, none of those 640 passengers have yet enjoyed a trip, and, well, if your hopes for near future, affordable space tourism were pegged on Virgin Galactic, unfortunately we once again have to tell you to reign in that excitement.

Virgin Galactic has been surrounded by, shall we politely say, shenanigans, with violations of Federal Aviation Administration protocols, the death of one test pilot and serious injury of another, as well as a decade-long history of broken promises by billionaire owner Richard Branson. We won’t go into all of this right now, but let’s just say that if you were one of those to sign up in 2013, you probably got pretty sick of hearing the phrase “in a year or two.”

On the other hand, while the list of the company’s failures is rather long, we must also acknowledge that Virgin Galactic is the first corporation in the world to successfully launch an independent commercial spaceflight. The initial test flight occurred on July 11th, 2021 with Richard Branson himself on-board the Unity 22. Unity 22 managed to breach the 80 km (50 mile) barrier which indicates space according to the US definition, officially putting Virgin Galactic in the history books. Branson, the 2 pilots and 3 employee passengers experienced weightlessness for a full 3 minutes, with the entire journey lasting about an hour.

At that time in 2021 Virgin Galactic reported that it had 600 commercial passengers signed up, though with the price per passenger ramped up significantly to $450,000.

Following the test flight the first commercial flight to include tourists took place on the 29th of June 2023, with 3 members of the Italian military riding along in a passenger capacity. The successful flight lasted 70 minutes and once again put Virgin Galactic in the history books. Following that flight, Virgin Galactic updated its backlog to specify that it now had 800 confirmed customers.

Additional successful commercial flights occurred over the remaining months of 2023, plus 2 more in 2024, for a total of 7. It was then announced that the Unity aircraft would be retired, and that work would begin on a replacement, with predictions saying that a newer model would be ready for commercial operations in 2026. Boy, those 800 signed up customers sure must be doing a lot of work in the patience department.

The Bottom Line

Okay, let’s stop beating around the bush and get to the obvious conclusion: we’re sorry to have to say that space tourism really just isn’t panning out like the science fiction films of old promised. While the technology is gradually getting better and reusable rockets are creating interesting potential, it’s unlikely that traveling into space will ever become as accessible as air travel, at least not for the foreseeable future and barring some revolutionary innovations.

The bottom line is that launching rockets into space is always going to be pretty bloody expensive, and since there’s no reason to even go into space right now, other than because “it’s fun,” space tourism is not going to be anything other than “millionaire’s bungee jumping” for decades, or shall we just say for “50 years at least” to honour the trend of extremely vague predictions.

In the meantime, let’s at least enjoy the fact that the spaceflight industry is moving along at a rather astonishing rate, and that the technological advancements happening now, even if they don’t include space tourism, do seem to suggest the possibility of a moon base relatively soon. In comparison to how space exploration was looking just a few decades ago, we really are in a golden era, and you’ll probably agree that this in itself is reason to be excited. Sadly, you’ll probably have to leave it to your grandchildren to actually visit the moon base, assuming Project Artemis pans out.

Key Takeaways

• Space tourism remains expensive and exclusive, with only 21 tourists since 2001.
• Major companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are developing space tourism.
• Technological advancements are making space travel more affordable, but not yet widely accessible.
• The International Space Station conducts vital research, justifying human spaceflight for now.
• Space tourism is predicted to grow, but significant innovations are needed for affordability.

Sources

• Original MegaProjects video: Space Tourism: Will this Ever Be Practical?
• Hero image source by VulcanSphere / openverse, by.

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