North Korea Has a New Nuclear Armed Submarine...

If you have been watching the news in the last week, you probably can’t help but have noticed that much has been made of a new piece of North Korean military hardware, a brand new, supposedly top of the line ballistic missile submarine. But just what to make of this machine? Frankly, who knows, because the media has done what it does best and hyperbolised this story to ungodly degrees – with some outlets claiming that it’s go time and we should all be running for the shelters, and others claiming that it is but a cardboard toy that will probably fall apart if it’s ever actually pushed into the water.

Faced with such a torrent of juxtaposed hyperbole, you probably found yourself scratching your head and wondering just what the reality of the matter was – certainly that was our response here at Megaprojects, so we got to work trying to get to the bottom of the matter, and here, today, we present to you the findings of that research; a grounded, no-nonsense, reality based analysis of North Korea’s new submarine.

Let’s get right into it!

Chapter 1: The North Korean Story

As of the time of writing (the 11th of September 2023), the North Korean Government has made two press releases regarding its new submarine, both published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) – North Korea’s state news agency. The first, titled “Ceremony of Launching Newly-built Submarine Held with Splendor in Presence of Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un” introduces the submarine as a “new powerful entity” that symbolizes the rapid advancement of the nation’s naval forces and demonstrates their national defence capabilities on a global scale. Furthermore, it is explicitly described as a “Korean-style tactical nuclear attack submarine,” a distinction that indicates its capability to deploy nuclear weapons, and implies it is of an indigenous design.

As for actual technical details on the submarine, they were very few and far between in this article. Besides the aforementioned alluding to it being an indigenous design, it was also announced that the submarine was designated as No. 841, and named as ‘Hero Kum Kun Ok,’ in honour of a highly decorated Naval Commander of the Korean War era… and that, really, is all the article actually states about the submarine itself. No mention of its performance or armaments… nothing really.

What the article does go into however, is explicit detail about how North Korea, or rather its government, views the submarine and its role, and that is still very important information for us building up an informed picture of it – so let’s dive into those comments now.

The first detail of interest is that the timing of the submarine’s launch coincided with the 75th founding anniversary of the DPRK, a very intentional move on the government’s part that was intended to make it a celebratory gift to the nation and a testament to the country’s advancements under the leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK).

The article then discusses the launching ceremony itself, explaining that it took place in the presence of Kim Jong Un and other high-ranking officials from the Party, government, and military – clearly to stress the paramount importance the state placed on the launch. Moving beyond this the article also specifically emphasis the nationalistic furor surrounding the event, making sure to highlight that the national anthem blared, and flags were waving.

Politics and nationalism are inseparable things in North Korea, so naturally, this theme was also interwoven in the article, with it placing a great emphasis on the nation’s “self-reliant defense industry” and its role in producing No. 841. Specifically, the ability to produce such an advanced submarine domestically being touted as a testament to North Korea’s technological and industrial capabilities, given the fact that the country’s national ideology, Juche, stresses self-reliance and localised production of all goods – such a focus should not be surprising.

Another recurring theme in the article is that of the “scientists, technicians, and workers,” and their collective national effort behind the submarine. Such a focus again makes sense given the nation’s ideology, with Juche being a particular communist doctrine that prioritizes not just the proletarian worker as a homogeneous whole, but the worker, scientist, and artist as separate but celebrated pillars of society – so of course shoutouts were given to specific sets of workers.

Furthermore, the leadership of Kim Jong Un and the WPK is also consistently highlighted. Kim’s presence, decisions, and insights are continually underscored, reinforcing his image as the paramount leader guiding North Korea towards great advancements – submarine No. 841 being chief amongst them… and speaking of Kim Jong Un, that allows us to segway nicely into the second article KCNA released regarding the submarine – a transcript of the speech he made during the launching ceremony.

Titled “Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Makes Congratulatory Speech at Ceremony for Launching Newly-Built Submarine”, the speech’s emphasis is primarily on the pride and significance that North Korea attaches to the launch of No. 841 – so sadly, still no technical details for us to discuss quite yet.

Recounting the journey to this achievement, Kim Jong Un reminisces about the many challenges and hurdles overcome during its construction, and pays heartfelt tribute to the countless workers, defence scientists, and others who dedicated themselves to the submarine’s development, with a particular nod to the efforts of the Pongdae Submarine Factory workers. This may come as a shock to you in the audience, as in the west we are conditioned by decades of media reporting to view North Korea as a land where its people are told it is a ‘magical wonderland utopia where nothing ever goes wrong ever Dear Leader bowled a perfect game the moment he was squeezed out of the womb don’t you know,’ but if you wish to gain an accurate understanding of North Korea, and trust us this comes from personal, on the ground experience, the first thing you need to learn is a sense of humility, because a lot of what you believe you know will, frankly, be utter nonsense – not to say we’ve drunk the Kool-Aid of course, because believe us we haven’t, just be open minded and ready to be wrong!

That proviso out of the way, as the speech continues Kim Jong Un uses No. 841 as a springboard to discuss future naval development, stating that the intention is to persist with the nuclear weaponization of the Navy, thereby strengthening both its underwater and surface combat prowess. Submarines are stated to be the immediate priority, with all medium and large sized submarines in the nation’s arsenal supposedly being in line to receive nuclear armaments.

As for the surface navy, Kim Jong Un articulates the desire to rejuvenate and modernize the nation’s warship-building industry. This includes plans for a range of modern warships designed for various roles, from coastal defence and maritime patrol to offensive operations. Parallelly, he highlights the need to bolster the nation’s infrastructure to support these ambitions. A modern engine industry for warships is earmarked as a critical requirement, alongside the renovation of shipyards, expansion of production capabilities, and a push for self-reliance in warship-building materials and equipment.

The North Korean leader emphasizes the role of nationwide participation in this vision. He makes a clarion call for comprehensive support across the country in strengthening both the warship-building industry and the Navy. The goal is clear: domestic production and self-reliance, with every sector in North Korea contributing towards these national endeavours.

This approach ties directly into North Korea’s ‘Songun’ or ‘military-first’ politics, a policy initiated by Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un’s predecessor. ‘Songun’ prioritizes the military above all other parts of society, and allocates the majority of the country’s resources to defence and military advancements. By emphasizing nationwide participation in strengthening the warship-building industry and the Navy, Kim Jong Un is not just promoting self-reliance but is also reinforcing the traditional centrality of the military in North Korean society and politics.

He then concludes the speech on a hopeful note, extending his wishes for the submarine’s safe voyages and successes.

Through the entire speech, the underlying narrative remains consistent: North Korea’s determination to enhance its naval capabilities, asserting its defence and technological progress in the face of global scepticism.

So, having now thoroughly examined them, what have the two North Korean sources we have taught us about the submarine? In technical terms at least, not a lot, and we certainly are not now in a position to be listing off a ‘top-trumps-esque’ specification list, as SHOCKINGLY the North Korean government appears to not want to reveal those details, but still, in terms of how the North Korean state views the submarine, a value perspective of how we are to understand it, we have learnt a hell of a lot.

It is clear that to the North Korean Government No. 841 is more than just a new addition to North Korea’s naval arsenal. It represents a convergence of the nation’s most revered ideological tenets – Juche’s emphasis on self-reliance and Songun’s military-first approach. These dual ideologies have long dictated the North Korean governance style, and the introduction of this submarine serves as a material manifestation of these principles in action.

It’s crucial to understand that for North Korea, its military advances are not just about global power projection or deterrence. They’re symbolic affirmations of national identity, pride, and the efficacy of the ruling party’s policies. By naming the submarine after a decorated Naval Commander from the Korean War era, the government is invoking a sense of historical continuity, paying homage to past heroes while staking its claim in the present and looking towards the future.

The celebration of indigenous production and the specific shout-outs to the “scientists, technicians, and workers” resonate deeply with the Juche ideology. It’s a testament to the North Korean narrative of overcoming odds – be they economic sanctions, technological challenges, or international scepticism. By showcasing the nation’s ability to produce an advanced submarine, the regime isn’t merely showcasing its technological prowess, but also its ability to mobilize its workforce in pursuit of national goals, against all odds.

On the other hand, the submarine’s potential nuclear capabilities highlight the embodiment of the Songun policy. North Korea’s military-first approach is premised on the belief that a strong military is essential for national survival. This submarine, with its hinted nuclear capabilities, serves as a deterrent, ensuring that any foreign aggression or intervention would come at a severe cost. By pushing forward with naval nuclearization, North Korea is signalling its intent to remain unyielding in the face of international pressure, ensuring its sovereignty and regime survival.

This focus on ideology in a video about a submarine might sound a bit out there, but trust us, it is vital for you to truly understand it, to quote one of the writers’ old lecturers: “Don’t forget that they actually believe this stuff!”

This is all well and interesting of course, but it does beckon a question – if everything released by the North Korean state has been basically just nationalistic chest beating and ideological signalling, what do we ACTUALLY know about the submarine?

The answer to that, sadly, is not a whole lot – such is the way of studying anything to do with the North Korean Military.

So let’s begin with a simple question – is this even a functional nuclear armed submarine as they claim? Again, we simply don’t know for sure, but to make an informed estimation, let’s have a look at the other submarines in their arsenal, and see if it’s even in the realms of possibility.

Chapter 2: North Korea’s Other Submarines

North Korea’s submarine force is actually surprisingly modern and substantial, certainly, it’s no America or China, but given the exceptionally low expectations of the nation in popular consensus, what they do actually have proves most surprising.

Firstly is the Sinpo, or Gorae-class. This diesel-electric class emerged in 2014 and drew considerable attention for its potential role as an Experimental Ballistic Missile Submarine. It is unclear exactly how many of these have been built, with most estimates being at 2-3 (if No. 841 is assumed to be a variant of this class as most analysts assume it to be). What is clear however, is that these appear to be completely functional as described by North Korea: satellite images suggest the presence of a launch tube on the conning tower that could house one or two missiles, and furthermore, in August 2016, a Sinpo was recorded as firing a KN-11 ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan during joint US-South Korean military exercises.

Next in line is the Sang-O-class of submarines. The Sang-O-class submarines, diesel-electric coastal vessels, have served the Korean People’s Navy since 1991. Built in Sinpo’s Bong Dao Bo Shipyards, these are North Korea’s second-largest native submarines. Equipped with four 533 mm torpedo tubes suitable for Russian 53-65KE torpedoes, they are designed for destroying other submarines, not launching missiles at far off cities.

Some even serve as infiltration vessels, transporting North Korean commandos across Asia. North Korea has at least 40 of these in service, and certainly, they are showing their age a bit now, but from all available sources, they still appear to be perfectly functional and viable machines.

Then there is the Yono-class, an indigenous miniature diesel-electric submarine. Although smaller in size (1/3-1/2 that of the Sang-O class), it has been employed strategically in various capacities, be it covert operations, coastal defence, or attacking enemy shipping. While its design and technology may be considered dated in comparison to more contemporary submarine classes, it appears to retain some utility to this day.

Then, to finish off North Korea’s submarines is the Type-033, a 1950s era diesel-electric submarine originating from China, of which North Korea has an estimated 20 units in service. According to the KPA Journal, these submarines are gradually being phased out, with a preference for the more modern Sang-O class. Intriguingly, at least one of these Type-033 submarines has been modified by North Korea to have ballistic missile launch capabilities.

These submarines were initially sold as kits from China and subsequently assembled in North Korea. Unlike the other submarines in North Korea’s Navy, even with the best will in the world, it is difficult to make a positive case for these submarines in 2023, they would be a thorn in the side of an attacker for sure, but in the modern naval landscape they simply aren’t an intimidating prospect, and why North Korea still maintains them is unknown.

All of this leads us to a single question: having heard of all of that, do you think that it is realistic for North Korea to have built No. 841 as they described it in their press releases? This matter is subjective of course, so please feel free to disagree, but we certainly think so. They already have proven experience building modern enough diesel-electric submarines, and submarines that can launch nuclear capable ballistic missiles, so while it no doubt was a stretch of their capabilities – we certainly don’t see any major reason to doubt their story here.

That just leaves us with one final question: so, what the hell ACTUALLY is it then? Again, we simply do not know the answer to this, but by enlisting the help of military analysts we can at least form an intelligent estimation of the submarine’s capabilities.

Chapter 3: The Western Analysts

In search of our answer, let us first turn to 38 North, a North Korean orientated news outlet funded by the American Stimson Center think tank. In their reporting they explain that in their opinion, satellite imagery confirms that the submarine is indeed a functional ballistic missile submarine as KCNA described, going on to explain that they counted at least ten missile silo hatches. Interestingly, they also report that it was almost TOO easy to identify this from satellite imagery, almost as if the North Koreans had intentionally not covered up these hatches to let everyone looking in know it was real – a prospect made even more likely by the fact that the rest of the submarine’s systems; propulsion and the like were nearly always reliably covered up while outside.

Peter Makowsky and Jack Liu, defence analysts working for the publication commented further, stating that through image analysis they had discovered the intriguing versatility of the submarine – noting the different sizes of its missile tube hatches, indicating that this vessel is likely designed to house a diverse array of weapon systems. This opens the possibility for the submarine to be equipped with both ballistic and cruise missiles, adding a layer of unpredictability to North Korea’s naval assets.

Other outlets are less complimentary of the submarine, with the Daily NK, a South Korean based North Korean news outlet being chief among them. There’s a belief, as their report suggests, that North Korea might be overstating the submarine’s capabilities for propaganda purposes. To justify this, they point to the use of diesel-power, stating that it seems at odds with a supposedly high-tech nuclear submarine.

Despite the disagreement between these outlets however, one thing that western analysts seem to be near unified on is that there is no reason to believe it can’t launch nuclear missiles. In light of the August 2016 incident, it significantly amplifies the threat posed by North Korea, now having another mobile platform for launching nuclear weapons that is all but impossible to track, intercept, and destroy, were war ever declared.

The submarine’s potentially sophisticated design has also stirred speculation around China’s possible influence or involvement. Some Western experts, noting the design parallels between the submarine and certain Chinese naval assets, wonder if North Korea might have benefited from technological insights or assistance from their neighbours. However, such theories currently stand on shaky ground, lacking concrete evidence.

Beyond its surface level military implications, some outlets, such as Reuters, have dug deeper and explored another dimension to the submarine: diplomacy. According to Reuters, the unveiling of this submarine could be North Korea’s way of signalling its displeasure with the prevailing geopolitical dynamics. By parading this new asset, they’re not just flaunting military might but also positioning themselves for future negotiations. In the intricate dance of North Korean diplomacy, where military muscle often pairs with negotiation tactics, this submarine could well be Kim Jong Un’s next move.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, Submarine No. 841 underscores a critical point: when it comes to the North Korean military there is very little we know with absolute certainty. If we wish to be truly informed it is essential that we embrace and work with this uncertainty. Pretending to possess full knowledge or making unfounded claims can distort perceptions and skew strategic decisions. There is absolutely nothing at all wrong with admitting when we lack complete information instead of merely winging it as oh so many in the world of North Korean commentary are prone to do.

However, from the fragments of information available, and by analysing North Korea’s known submarine capabilities and the insights from various experts, we can draw some informed conclusions. The nation’s submarine force, with its diverse range from the modern Sinpo class to the older Type-033, suggests a historical proficiency in underwater naval endeavours, thus we are inclined to conclude that the submarine is largely as described by the North Korean State – a fully functional ballistic missile submarine.

Navigating North Korea’s defence capabilities requires a delicate balance of understanding based on discernible evidence and educated conjecture. Given the nation’s clandestine nature, it’s improbable for outside commentators to possess a comprehensive understanding of its inner workings. Thus, our method – amalgamating what is known and crafting informed suppositions, remains one of the most viable approaches to demystifying the enigmatic world of North Korea’s defence arsenal.

Key Takeaways

• North Korea’s new submarine, No. 841, is described as a tactical nuclear attack submarine.
• The submarine’s launch was timed to coincide with North Korea’s 75th founding anniversary.
• North Korea emphasizes self-reliance and indigenous production in its submarine development.
• Western analysts generally agree that the submarine can launch nuclear missiles.
• The submarine’s design and capabilities are subject to speculation and uncertainty.

Sources

• Original MegaProjects video: North Korea Has a New Nuclear Armed Submarine…

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